July Arabica Coffee (Kcn25) Tuesday -8.10 (-2.35%), and July Ice Robusta Coffee (RMN25) -42 (-0.96%) closed.

On Tuesday, the prices of coffee increased Monday’s loss, in which Arabica coffee decreased by 2–1/4 months. The recent rainfall in Brazil has reduced the concerns of dryness and weighing on coffee prices. On Monday, Somar Metorologia reported that Brazil’s largest Arab Coffee-Uugne region, Minas Gerace received 10.6 mm rainfall during the week ended June 14, 131%of the historic average for this time of the year.

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Coffee prices are generally weak due to Brazil’s ongoing coffee crop, in which Arabica coffee falls 2–1/4 months less on Tuesday and Robusta decreased by 10 months last Friday. Brazilian Coccoxux coffee cum-up announced last Tuesday that its members said that the coffee crop was 13.7% complete, compared to 13.6% at the same time last year. Cooxupe is Brazilian’s largest coffee cooperative and Brazilian coffee is the largest exporter.

Meanwhile, Safras and Markado reported last Friday that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest had completed 35% by June 11, slightly behind the comparable level of 37% last year, but in line with an average of 5 years of 35%. Breakdown revealed that 49% of Robusta Harvest and 26% Arab crop was completed by June 11. The Brazilian Arab crop has been slowed down by heavy rains in some areas.

Coffee prices have been under pressure in the last six weeks due to concerns about high coffee production and adequate supply. On May 19, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) estimates that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase 0.5% year-on-year (Y/Y) to 65 million bags and Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will increase by 6.9% y/y to 31 million bags. Brazilian Arabica is the world’s largest producer of coffee, and Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of Robsta coffee.

Robusta Coffee prices have an underlying support as ice-monitor Robusta Coffee Environment fell on 1 month short Tuesday of 5,157 lots. In a recession factor for Arabica prices, however, the snow-marketing billion coffee invention rose at 4–1/2 months high of 892,468 bags on 27 May and was below that high on 859,389 bags till Tuesday.

Small coffee from Brazil is fast for export prices. Last Wednesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s May Green Coffee export -36% y/y fell to 2.8 million bags.

Robusta coffee has low Robusta production support. Due to drought, Vietnam’s coffee production in 2023/24 crop year declined to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. In addition, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam said that 2024 Vietnam coffee export -17.1% y/y fell to 1.35 mmt. Last Tuesday, the National Statistics Office of Vietnam said that 2025 Vietnam’s Vietnam’s Jan -Mai Coffee exports are below -1.8% y/y to 813,000 MT. In addition, on March 12, the Vietnam Coffee and Coco Association cut their 2024/25 Vietnam Coffee Productions in 26.5 million bags from December 28 million bag. In contrast, on May 19, the USDA FAS estimated that Vietnam’s 2025/26 Robusta coffee crop would climb a 4 -year high 30 million bags at 7% y/y.

On December 18, USDA’s biennial report was mixed for coffee prices. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) estimated that world coffee production +4.0% y/y will increase to 174.855 million bags in 2024/25, +1.5% increase in arabica production will increase by 97.845 million bags and Robusta production in 77.01 million bags will increase by +7.5%. The USDA FAS predicts that at the end of 2024/25, the stock will fall from 22.347 million bags in 2023/24 to a 25 -year low of a 25 -year low of 20.867 million bags.

For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe performs a global 2025/26 billion coffee deficit -8.5 million bags, which exceeds the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and lacks fifth consecutive year.

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