September Ice NY Coco (Ccu25) On Thursday, +345 ( +3.97%), and July Ice London Coco #7 closed (Can25) +202 ( +3.35%) closed.

Coco prices extended this week’s rally on Thursday and posted at a high level of 1-week. The attitude to the supply of small cocoa from the world’s second largest cocoa producer Ghana is rapidly pushing prices. Ghana’s Coco Board on Thursday covered a distance of 600,000 meters from its 2024/25 coco production forecast of 617,500 December.

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Coco prices have been under pressure for the last several weeks, in which NY Coco had posted a lower 2–1/4 months last Friday and was posted to London Cocoa 2–1/2 months. The recent rains in West Africa are expected to benefit the cocoa crops of the region and have been reversed in Cocoa prices.

Rebounds in current cocoa inventions are also a slowdown for prices. Since falling at a 21-year low of 1,263,493 bags on 24 January, the ice-monitor cocoa inventory held at US ports has been rebounded and has climbed a high level of 9-1/2 months of 2,363,861 bags last Wednesday.

Small cocoe export signs support Cocoa prices, after Wednesday’s news that Nigerian Coco exports fell from 29% Y/Y to 14,110 MT. Nigeria is the fourth largest exporter in the world of Coco.

Coco prices are supported due to concerns about the supply of cocoa tight from Ivory Coast. Monday’s official data has shown that farmers of Ivory Coast sent 1.679 MMT to Cocoa to port from 1 October to 22 June, +6.9% from last year but below the huge +35% increase in December. There are reports that heavy rains in the Ivory Coast are keeping the cocoa growers away from their fields and the ongoing mid-crop cocoa is disrupting the crop.

Later last month, NY Cocoa reached a high level in the closest flow of 4-3/4 months over the weather concerns about the weather in West Africa. Despite the recent rains in West Africa, the drought still covers more than one third of the Ghana and Ivory Coast, according to the African floods and the monitoring of the drought.

Coco prices are also supported due to quality concerns about the middle-crop cocoa in the prices of Coco, which is currently being cut through September. Coco processors are complaining about crop quality and have rejected the truck load of Ivory Coast Coco Beans. The processor said that during the main crop, each truck load contains about 5% to 6% poor quality of the middle-crop cocoa. According to Robobank, the poor quality of the middle-crop between the Ivory Coast is partially attributed to the late rain in the region, which limits crop growth. The middle-crop is smaller than two annual cocoa crops, usually beginning in April. The average estimates for this year’s Ivory Coast Mid -Falsa are 400,000 mounts, which is -9% of the previous year’s 440,000 tonnes.

Cocoa and Cocoa products concern about consumer demand for cocoa is slow, inspired by apprehensions that tariffs will already increase the prices of high cocoa. On April 10, Barry Calbut AG, one of the world’s largest chocolate manufacturers, reduced its annual sales guidance due to high Cocoa prices and tariff uncertainty. In addition, chocolate manufacturer Harshe company recently stated that Q1 sales have fallen by 14% and said that this is an estimate of $ 15- $ 20 million in tariff costs in Q2, which will promote chocolate prices and increase weight further on consumer demand. Mondelez International reported weakened-to-prepared Q1 sales, stating that consumers are cutting back on snack purchases due to economic uncertainty and high chocolate prices.

The weak demand from the cocoa processor was seen in Q1. Q1 North American Coco Grinding fell to 110,278 mt to 110,278 mt. Q1 European Coco Grinding fell to 3.7% y/y. Q1 Asian cocoa piece -3.4% y/y fell to 213,898 mt.

On 30 May, the International Coco Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global Cocoa deficit from -494,000 MT to -441,000 tonnes of February estimate, the largest deficit in more than 60 years. ICCO said that the production of 2023/24 cocoa fell -13.1% y/y fell to 4.380 mmt. The ICCO stated that the 2023/24 global cocoa stock/grinding ratio fell to 27.0%at a 46 -year low. Given further for 2024/25, ICCO estimated the global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25 on 28 February, the first surplus in four years. ICCO also estimated that 2024/25 global cocoa production would increase from +7.8% y/y to 4.84 mmt.

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