S&P 500 Index ($ SPX,detective) Monday closed +0.52%, Dow Jones Industrial Index ($ Dovi,DIA) Close +0.63%, and nasdaq 100 index ($ IUXX,Qqqq) Close +0.64%. September e-mine S&P Fucers (Esu25)) Up +0.44%, and September e-mine nashedac futures (Nqu25) Above +0.56%.

The stock index posted new all-time high with S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 on Monday, and Dow Jones Industrial posted a 4–1/4 month height. Positive trade news promoted shares on Monday, President Trump’s 9 July deadline is coming fast. Trade talks with China and the European Union are being progressed. Furthermore, after the country’s digital service tax withdrawn, trade talks with Canada are back, and trade teams from India and Japan extended their stay in Washington to iron new trade deals.

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On Monday, low bond yields also promote more shares. Weakness in US economic news on Monday estimated that Fed June MNI Chicago PMI and June Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey will soon cut interest rates soon due to weak-to-submitted reports. The yield of 10-year T-Note increased to 4.22%on 8-week of 8-week. In addition, the comments of Treasury Secretary Besant reduced the yield of long -term bonds when he said it was time to release long -term securities when the interest rates were low in 2020, 2021 and 2022, which reduced the concerns of supply supplies at the long end of the curve.

The Senate has started considering the Republican reconciliation bill, with the dollar index at a new 3–1/4-year low on Monday, as the Nonpartison Congress’s budget office estimates that the bill will add around $ 3.3 trillion to the US deficit in the next decade.

The M&A activity also supports the stock after the home depot announced that it has acquired GMS Inc. for $ 4.3 billion, and EBV agreed to buy Capton Therapeutics for $ 2.1 billion.

The US June MNI Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell from -0.1 to 40.4, which is weak from hopes of growth to 43.0 and expected the weakest level in 5 months.

US June Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook Survey from +2.6 to -12.7, weakened by expectations of -10.0.

Better economic news than China supports the possibilities of global economic development. The construction of China June increased PMI +0.2 to 49.7, which was stronger than expectations of 49.6. In addition, June non-construction PMI +0.2 increased to 50.5, stronger than expectations of no change at 50.3.

The President of Atlanta Fed was a bit hosting, when he said that the majority of tariff pricing has not yet been reflected in the market and can cause an increased effect on tariff prices, which can increase more frequent pressure on inflation. He cut a 25 bp rate this year and cut three rates in 2026.

The negative side has the upcoming income season for shares, which begins next week. Bloomberg intelligence data suggests that the consensus for the Q2 income of S&P 500 companies is for 2.8% year-to-year growth, which is the smallest growth in two years. In addition, only six of the 11 S&P 500 regions are estimated to post the lowest increase in the lowest income increase since the Yardney Research, according to Yardney Research.

During this holiday-short week, the market will look for additional trade and tariff news along with the progress in the passage of President Trump’s tax bill. On Tuesday, the June ISM construction index is expected to climb from +0.2 to 48.7. Also, on Tuesday. May Job Opening is expected to fall from 91,000 to 7.3 million. Finally, on Tuesday, Fed Chair Powells participate in a panel, with BOE Governor Bailey, ECB President Lagard and BOJ Governor Uaida discuss monetary policy. On Wednesday, June ADP employment change is expected to increase +90,000. On Thursday, June nonform parole is expected to climb to +113,000, and the June employment rate is expected to last from +0.1 to 4.3%. In addition, the average per hour of June is expected to increase +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y. In addition, the claims of weekly early unemployment are expected to climb from +5,000 to 241,000, and the factory orders are expected to jump +8.1% m/m. Finally, the June ISM Services is expected to climb at the Index +0.7 to 50.6.

Federal Fund Futures prices are giving up 21% probability for cutting 25 BP rate in July 29-30 FOMC meeting.

Foreign stock markets mixed on Monday. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell down from the high -wealth and closed down -0.42%. China’s Shanghai Composite +0.59%closed. Japan’s Nikkei stock rose 225 to 11–1/2 months high and +0.84%shut down.

Interest rates

September 10-Year’s T-Rots (Znu25) On Monday closed by +10 tick. The yield of 10 -year T -Note -4.7 BP fell to 4.23%.

Sep T-notes reached a high level of 8-week on Monday, and a 10-year T-Rot yield fell to 4.22%at the bottom of the 8-week. The T-Note prices rose on Monday, as the positive trade news hoped for small-to-adapt tariffs, which reduced inflation concerns. Today’s weak-to-the-covered Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed reports were also helpful for T-notes. In addition, the comments of the Treasury Secretary reduced concerns about the pressure of supply at the long end of the Treasury curve, when he said that there is no longer time for the Treasury to release long -term securities.

T-notes closed on Monday at the end of the month and when purchasing quarter-ends by Bond Fund managers, who should buy long-term treasures to rebirth to their portfolio. According to the Bloomberg Treasury Index, the month-end index rebelling is estimated to be extended to 0.07 years.

On Monday, on the negative side for T-Rots, the S&P 500 had a new record high-level rally, which reduced the safe-havan demand for government securities. In addition, Atlanta Fed President Bstic said that tariffs could cause more frequent pressure on inflation.

European government bond yield was mixed on Monday. The 10-year-old German bund yield increased by 5-week high 2.612% and increased by +1.5 bp to 2.607%. The yield of 10 -year -old UK gilt fell to 4.489%.

The German May retail sales unexpectedly fell -1.6% m/m, A +weaker than the expectations of an increase of 0.5% m/m and the biggest decline of more than 2–1/2 years.

German June CPI (harmony of European Union) increased +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y, +0.3% m/m and + +1.8% y/y.

ECB Vice President Guindos said that the Eurozone economy is stopping due to “cruel uncertainty” around the global trade policy and the second and third quarter growth would “be almost flat.”

In the July 24 policy meeting, the ECB is giving exemption to the possibility of 4% for cutting -25 BP rate cuts.

US Stock Movers

After the news last Friday, the bank stock increased on Monday that the largest American banks passed the annual tension test of all the Feds, which could motivate banks to increase buybacks and dividends for shareholders. As a result, Goldman Sachs (GS) Dow Jones Industrial closed more than +2% to lead the beneficiaries. In addition, the Northern Trust (Ntrs) And JP Morgan Chase (JPM) +1%off. In addition, Capital One Financial (COF) And Sinkoni Financial (Seaf) Close +0.83%, and Wales Fargo & Company (WFC) Close +0.78%.

Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE) S&P 500, and more than +11% closed to lead gainers in Juniper network (JNPRAfter solving its case challenging the HPE’s acquisition of Junipar Network by the Department of Justice) +more than 8% stopped.

GMS Inc.GM) The home depot closed more than +11% after the company agreed to buy for $ 4.3 billion or about $ 110 per share.

Whirlpool corp (Hard,) After upgrading the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $ 145 by Longbo Research, more than +5% closed.

Applovin (Application) The UBS stock on the stock target extended to more than $ 475 to more than $ 540 +4%.

Oracle (Befall) Stifel closed more than +3% after upgrading the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $ 250.

Walt Disney cum (DistrictJeffrees closed more than +1% +1% after upgrading the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $ 144.

Weakness in WTI raw price was weighed on energy producers and energy service providers on Monday. Diamondback Energy (Feng), APA Corp (APA), Axon Mobil (Xom), Occidental Petroleum (Oxy), And Devon Energy (Deadnn) -1%closed.

Cohen and Steer Inc.CNSBank of America Global Research closed over -3% after starting coverage on stock with a $ 67 price target.

Fortiv (FTV) After announcing the retirement of CEO and President LICO, more than -3% stopped and said that Olumide Soroy would replace him.

Lamb Weston Holdings (Lav) After agreeing to appoint six new independent directors, more than -2% stopped and Bradley Alford was named as chairman after an agreement with activist investor Jana Partners Management and Continental Grain Company.

Earning Report (7/1/2025)

Constitution Brands Inc. (STZ), Greenbier Cos Inc./The (GBX), MSc Industrial Direct Company Inc. (MSM), Tektargate Inc. (TTGT).

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