Dollar index (Dxy00) Today is +0.36%. Constant power in the US economy was suggested, the dollar is higher after a strong-to-the US payroll report of the US payroll report of +147,000. Seeing the support of better interest rate in the dollar is also looking at the support, growing more than +5 BP with a 10-year T-Rot. The dollar is also supported as the market cut the fed rate cuts in the upcoming July 29–30 meeting, which increased from 23% to 6% on Wednesday.

In contrast, the dollar is being reduced by reducing the safe-havan demand with today’s rally in shares. In addition, today’s American trade deficit was mildly recession for dollars.

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May US trade deficit -slightly larger than the expectations of $ 71.5 billion -$ 71.0 billion, and amended April -above $ 60.3 billion. Exports may have fallen -4.0% m/m. May import -0.1% m/m fell, April K -16.3% joined the dip.

The House is trying to pass the Republican reconciliation bill after the all-night session today. The House passed an important procedural measure last night with 219–213 votes, estimating that the House may approve measurements today before leaving for a holiday of July 4. The House Marg will finalize the approval of the Congress and send a bill to President Trump for his signature. Nonpartison Congress’s budget office estimates that the bill will add about $ 3.3 trillion to the US budget deficit in the next decade. The fiscal stimulation from the bill will be a pure positive for the American economy, but also increases the risk for a final debt crisis in the United States. The reconciliation bill involves the required debt roof enhancement required to prevent a treasury default when the treasury comes out of the borrowed authority on the so-called “X-Det”, which comes for some time between mid-August and end of September.

डॉलर के लिए एक नकारात्मक कारक में, फेड चेयर पॉवेल के खिलाफ ट्रम्प प्रशासन के अभियान ने ब्याज दरों में कटौती करने के लिए जारी रखा, जब ट्रेजरी सचिव स्कॉट बेसेन्ट ने आज सुबह फॉक्स व्यवसाय पर एक साक्षात्कार में कहा कि फेड अपनी ब्याज दर सेटिंग प्रक्रिया पर “थोड़ा बंद” प्रतीत होता है, क्योंकि उनके साक्षात्कार के 2-वर्षीय टी-नोट की उपज फेडर के लक्ष्य सीमा के नीचे 4.25%-4.50%के लिए फेडरल फंड Was below the rate. However, the yield of 2-year-old T-Rots then increased to 3.87%, which was expected for the US unemployment rate. He also said that the administration has expected to fill two vacant fed seats next year, meaning that the administration is expecting that Jerome Powell will leave the fed completely after leaving the post in May 2026, even though his separate word as a fed governor does not end until January 2028.

Business talks are in attention before the July 9 deadline for mutual tariff implementation. The objective of the European Union is to arrive on an agreement with the US in principle by the time limit of July 9, according to the comments made by the European Union President Ursula von Der Leyen today. In the news of other trade deal, President Trump said on Wednesday that the US had reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. President Trump said on Tuesday that there is no possibility of a business deal with Japan, so the country is most likely 30%, 35%, or “whatever number is that we determine.”

Today’s June Non-Form payroll report was stronger than expectations of +106,000 of +147,000. The parole report came as a surprise, given that the markets were lashed out for a weak report on Wednesday, which came to the US June ADP employment report after the news of a decline of 33,000, which marked the first decline in 2-1/4 years. In June, strong-to-intake payroll growth was inspired by the increase in employment in state and local governments including public education. In contrast, only +74,000 increased, suggesting the weakness of the labor market outside the private payroll state and local governments. June manufacturing payroll -7,000 fell to matches of May. April-May parole had a pure upward amendment of +16,000.

In addition, June US unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, which indicates a strong labor market to increase +0.1 points that increases to 4.3%. The June unemployment rate of 4.1% is above the 8-skeletal level of 3.4% posted in April 2023.

In some positive news for inflation approaches, earning an average per hour of June +0.2% m/m and +3.7% increased, +0.3% m/m and + +3.8%, slightly weaker than expectations and +0.4% m/m and +3.9% y/y of May.

Early unemployment claims fell from -4,000 to 233,000, showing a strong labor market compared to the expectations of 241,000. Constant claims were unchanged at 1.964 million, showing a slightly weak labor market compared to the expectations of 1.962 million.

The June ISM US Services Index increased from 49.9 to 50.8 in May, which grew more than expectations for an +0.7 point increase. Payment of prices of June ISM services increased from 68.7 to -1.2 points in May to 67.5 in May, +0.2 points weaker than expectations for an increase of 68.9.

The final -zoon S&P US services PMI was revised slightly less than the 53.1 preliminary report from the preliminary report of 53.1, which was weakened by expectations for an unpleasant report of 53.1. The final-June S&P US Composite PMI was modified from 52.8 to 52.8 to 52.9, stronger than expectations for an unpublished report of 52.8.

The May US factory order represented the rebellion of -3.9% after the +8.2% m/m and May revised decline. The order of pre-transportation in the orders of the US factory may be in line with the market expectations, +0.2% meter/meter.

Markets are giving exemption to 6% possibility of cutting -25 BP rate cut in July 29-30 FOMC meeting.

EUR/USD (^Eurusd) Mainly -0.37% is due to the strength of the dollar. Euro was also reduced as ECB officials at the Euro meeting, expressing concern about the strength of the euro, which was for the ECB policy. The ECB also expressed concern about the economy due to the uncertainty of trade.

In some positive news for the Euro, the final-jun HCOB Eurozone services PMI was revised more than 50.5 points from the initial report of 50.0 to 50.5 points, stronger than expectations without any amendment. The overall PMI was revised more than 50.2 to 50.6.

In the July 24 policy meeting, 6% of the probability of cutting -25 BP rate cut by ECB is pricing.

USD/JPY (^Usdjpy) Rapidly +0.91%. Yen trade is under pressure on Tuesday after President Trump on Tuesday, there is no possibility of a trade deal with Japan on Tuesday, so the country is most likely 30%, 35% or “whatever number is that we determine.”

August gold (Gcq25) Below -22.9 (-0.68%), and September silver (Siu25) above +0.198 ( +0.54%). Gold prices are being reduced by strong dollars and an increase in the yield of strong-to-preceded T-Rott on the US payroll report. However, silver is looking at optimism on the demand for industrial metals after suggesting continuous power in the US economy in today’s US economic reports.

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