October NY World Sugar #11 (SBV25) Today +0.08 ( +0.48%), and October London Ice White Sugar #5 (SWV25) Above +3.60 ( +0.75%).

Sugar prices are rising more today and a height of 1-1/2 months has been posted on Outlook for the demand for strong American sugar. President Trump said on Wednesday that Coca-Cola agreed to use sugarcane sugar in coke drinks sold in the US instead of high-fructose corn syrup, which according to Bloomberg Intelligence can currently increase US sugar consumption from 11 MMT to 11.4% to 11.5 MMT.

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Sugar prices also support low sugar production in Brazil. Unika said on Monday that 2025/26 Brazilian Center -South Sugar Production -14.3% Y/Y fell from June to 12.249 mmt through June. Last month, Brazil’s official crop forecast agency Conb said 2024/25 Brazil fell to 44.4% y/y to 44.118 mmt, cite a low sugarcane yield due to drought and excessive heat.

In the last three months, sugar prices have back down, NY Chinese has come down to 4.25 years earlier this month and London Chinese is slipping at a low of 4 years low at expectations for Chinese surplus in 2025/26. On 30 June, the Commodity Treder Czarnikow estimated the 7.5 MMT Global Sugar Surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. On 22 May, in its bipolar report, the USDA estimated that the global 2025/26 Chinese production +4.7% y/y will increase to a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with global Chinese termination to 41.188 MMT, 7.5% Y/Y.

The approach to high sugar production in India is the world’s second largest producer, recession for prices. On 2 June, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factory estimated that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would climb on +19% y/y to 35 mmt, citing the large -planned sugarcane. According to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), it will follow a fall of -17.5% y/y at a 5 -year low of 26.2 mm in India’s sugar production in 2024/25. In addition, ISMA said on 7 July that India’s sugar production -17% y/y fell to 25.74 mmt during October 1 -May 15.

Chinese production in India is expected to benefit from the forecast for the above normal rain during the monsoon season (June-September). On Monday, India’s Meteorological Department said that India’s rainfall was 9% above normal in June and the normal rainfall for July was forecast.

The approach to high sugar production in Thailand is a slowdown for sugar prices. On 2 May, the office of the sugarcane and sugar board of Thailand reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar production increased to 14% y/y 10.00 mm. Thailand is the third largest Chinese producer in the world and the second largest exporter of sugar.

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its 2024/25 global Chinese deficit forecast for 9 -year highest -5.47 MMT from the February forecast of 4.88 MMT. This indicates a tightening market after the 2023/24 global Chinese surplus of 1.31 mmt. The ISO cut its 2024/25 global Chinese production forecast to 174.8 mm from February 175.5 mm.

In its bi-annual report released on 22 May by the USDA, it was estimated that the global 2025/26 sugar production +4.7% Y/Y will climb a record 189.318 mmt and the global 2025/26 human sugar consumption will increase +1.4% y/y record 177.921 mmt. The USDA also estimated that 2025/26 Global Sugar Ending Stock +7.5% Y/Y to climb 41.188 mmt. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 Chinese production would increase +2.3% y/y by a record 44.7 mm of FAS that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would increase +25% y/y to 35.3 mmt -friendly monsoon rains due to rain and increased sugar. The FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 Chinese production would climb from +2% y/y to 10.3 mmt.

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