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When Venta Mersk, a ship owned by Denmark’s AP Moller-Messk, departed from Vladivostoc to St. Petersburg in the West in 2018, Vladivostoc, Russia, the journey was informed as a herbinger of things coming. It was the first container ship from Asia to Europe through the North Sea route via the Arctic Ocean instead of the Suez Canal. It was estimated that, such as the Arctic temperature rose and sea ice cover fell, time and cost savings would regularize such visits.

Nevertheless, seven years later, Venta remains the only ship from a large international container line to use the Mersk route. In 2024, the ships traveling handled only 3mn tons of cargo amidst points outside the Arctic, which, according to the Russian state company Rosatome, conducts transits. Figures are dwarfed by 26,434 trips through 1.57bn tonne cargo and Suez canal in 2023, before Yemen attacks last year Hauthis Inspired the reunion of the trips.

The reluctance of most of the shipping lines to operate in the Arctic has suspected the predictions that the warming will reopen the warming shipping pattern in the sea.

Daniel Richards, a director of London -based Consultancy Maritime Strategies International, indicates the risks of using the northern route. He says that container shipping lines are risky, and their customers are equally reluctant to enter their goods ecological and geologically sensitive. “This is unlikely to change in the near period,” they say.

However, near the Norway border with Russia, the port director of the port, Georgensen, the region is sure that the region can become an important trading route. He told the BBC about his vision in May that the lightly used ports were converted to “North Singapore”, transferring containers between ships: “We are trying to make here in Kirchens, a trans-showing port where three continents meet: North America, Europe and Asia.”

The desire to use the northern sea route of shipping lines is likely to be determined by geography, economics and geopolitics. The main point in favor of geography is, as the corridor is a small means of reaching some parts of Europe from Asia than the option. From the Japanese port of Yokohama to the Russian Arctic port of Murmansk, there is a distance of 12,840 knots through the traditional Suez Canal Marg and 5,770 knots via North Sea Marg.

Due to climate change, the route has also become more negative. Some parts of the Arctic are often free from sea ice in summer, although many shipping lines prefer to use “ice-class” vessels with additional-strong hulls. Many people rely on Russian Icebreakers, which were provided by Rosatom, to clean the path.

Richards noted that the heaviest flow of the duration-rich hemispheres with the lowest marine-covered coverage-when the heaviest flow of goods comes ahead of Christmas from Asia to Europe and North America. “It may be that a person will run a few sailors per year to match with a peak season in summer, offering a slightly sharp transit time,” he says.

Richards says some container ships are taking relatively small northern sea routes, but they are mostly run by specialist operators with links to Russia and China. Two small container lines-Nunev shipping, which are located in Dalian, China and Hong Kong-based saffection line, for example, providing services through the route.

For most shipping companies, however, economic and geopolitical risk of operation through Arctic overtake any opportunity. Basil Kratzas, a new York-based ship finance specialist, says the route is “quite isolated; it is not a year”.

Richards says that for container vessels, which follow the set schedule, the unexpected weather offers “technical challenges”. It is rarely clear which parts will be snow-free and when or if Icebreaker Is necessary. And environmental concerns are; Since 2019, many big shipping lines have signed Arctic corporate shipping pledgePromise not to use arctic routes to avoid polluting the area.

The route also bypasses the hub where the ship leaves or lift the cargo between the ports. For example, Mersk uses the hub in Tanjung Pelepus near Singapore; Salalah, in Oman; And on the sides of Spanish and Morocco of Gibraltar Strait to serve Asia, Gulf and Africa.

A person familiar with Maersk’s thinking suggested his dependence on the hub that it is one of the reasons that it has not returned to the Arctic, saying that due to restrictions, Maersk no longer trade in Russia. The route moves almost completely through Russian water and using it may require support from Rosatom’s Icebreakers.

Kratzas suspect that most lines will prevent the route from using the route for now: “As long as there is no compelling reason, I think people will stay away for the time.”