key takeaways,

• Bitcoin spent the battle to keep the week above $ 107,000, but exchanges inflows remain on historical climb as retail investors choose to sit on the shore.

• Stagflation becomes a real risk because American growth slows down, but the fed rate cut can fix the position and the price of supercharged bitcoin.

• Onchain data shows accumulation to bitcoins, suggesting that the next breakout will be in the collapse of 2025.

After taking a dip below $ 99,000, bitcoin is Re -claim $ 107,000, expectations of an adjacent breakout. Nevertheless, something feels. There is no FOMO and there is no retail investor stampede in favor of shopping. A cool, uncomfortable rally operated by wealth, whales and traders, while onchain activity looks great.

It does not look like a specific bull rally. Below the surface, the American economy is shining warning signs, while the fed is stuck, is torn between inflation fighting and supporting a weak economy.

In such situations, bitcoin can thrive as a defense against uncertainty. But whether a market built on the balance sheet – not trust – can actually break at new heights? Stagflation, with a loud growing, the answer may come from this decline.

Should the US break for stagflation?

The word “stagflation” did not appear to the Congress in the seminual report of Geom Powell on Wednesday, but it overshadowed his comment. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve reiterated that the central bank “deployed to wait well” unless more data makes it clear whether US President Donald Trump’s tariffs will trigger an increase in a continuous inflation. Meanwhile, the fresh data slows down the signals, increasing unemployment, and stubborn inflation – the definition of a stagflation environment.

On 17 June, the Fed officials drew their GDP’s forecast to 1.4% for 2025 below 1.7% in March. Inflation estimates increased by the previous 2.7%to 3%, while unemployment is now expected to increase from 4.5%to 4.4%.

Private sector data trends confirm. monday S&P Global PMI The flash reading increased from 53.0 to 52.8 in June, which showed the fading speed. Exports are falling, inventory stockpiles are growing, tariffs reflect concerns, and consumer demands stagger.

What is more, on Thursday, US Economic Analysis Amended Q1 The real GDP -0.3% to -0.5%, confirms the fragility of the US economy. More than this, the increase in personal consumption fell to 0.5%, since 2020 its weakest, while the core inflation climbed by 3.8%.

Meanwhile, the tariff war is over. As analysts of Kobisi letter warnTrump’s 90-day tariff stagnation is now only 12 days left. This means that, without any new trade deals, the US will implement the country-specific “mutual tariff” on July 9, including tariffs of up to 50% on the imports of the European Union while maintaining a global 10% baseline tariff.

Meanwhile, the trade position with China remains over the 90-day break after a bilateral agreement on 14 May, setting a different time limit for August 12. While tone is set by reducing structure and technical restrictions on rare earth metals today, a final deal between the world’s largest economies is still away from being safe.

As the Israel-Iran war goes away from the headlines, the business war may soon withdraw the spotlight, and with it, the growing expectations of inflation. For bitcoin and other hard assets, this macro backdrop is mostly rapid. Still this bull market is missing an important piece.

A bull market without believers?

Bitcoin Onchen Matrix suggests that the market usually lacks widespread confidence in bull cycles. As CryptocvicThe average bitcoin flow for binance 2022 bear has fallen to 5,700 BTC per month, less than recorded levels during the market. In specific bull markets, exchange inflows increase because retail participants are pursued. This time, silence.

Last Sunday’s recession began with Israel’s attacks on Iran, showing that a lot of money is still ready to buy a dip. However, as Glasanode Report Shows, this money appears focused between sophisticated traders, hedge funds and institutional desks, not retail crowds. Like -such as bitcoin transactions decline and size increases, trading has shifted offchin, in which always swaps are now dominating action.

Bitcoin vector, a willy wu and swissblock project, it is sung by bluntness:

“Jowar is turning to the side of the bulls, but onchain is a missing piece. Without a recovery in fundamental and major components (liquidity + network enlargement), the reverse remains speculative, operated by the leverage, not punished. The bulls require more than the structure control to maintain this move.”

This raises an important question. Can a bull market mainly run by institutional investor – and not retail enthusiasm – maintain itself?

Summer Lull – or calm before the storm?

While speculation is flourishing, the holders are quietly accumulating. Axler Adler Junior noted that the long -term ratio for short -term holders is growing once again, as around the level of $ 28,000 and $ 60,000 before the previous rallies. Adler Junior said,

“Today, on the $ 100K mark, we see a continuous increase in the LTH/STH ratio again: this accumulation may last up to 4-8 weeks, after which, by the analogy with the previous cycles, a powerful upward is likely to be reversed.”

If we hold a historical pattern, the next stage of bitcoin may target the $ 160,000 range according to the analyst.

Season This time supports. Bitcoin historically underperform in summer. Data of the previous decade shows that between May 21 and September 25, the average annual return of bitcoins is only +15%, while the rest of the year is +138% during the rest of the year. Recently, summer has often been a lump sum recession with an average seasonal dradown of -17.6% since 2017.

This history implies that the coming months can be less about fireworks and more about consolidation – an accumulation phase where the supply quietly tightens below the surface.

Connected: American home mortgage regulatory considins bitcoin amidst the housing crisis

If the economic data continues to deteriorate – especially unemployed claims and Fed’s favorite core PCE inflation is expected to read on Friday and Saturday – Fed can actually cut rates in September and October. Bitcoin will be correct to get out of its seasonal recession and the holders are sufficient for a long time.

Glasanodes Keep it“The structure remains aids, but a breakout for new heights will require a clear pickup in demand, activity and conviction.” What this conviction emerges in time, depends on two things: Fed and what bitcoin can once again capture the public imagination.

There are no investment advice or recommendations in this article. Each investment and business move include risk, and readers should conduct their own research while taking decisions.