July Ice NY cocoa (Ccn25) Today -572 (-5.62%), and July Ice London Coco #7 (Can25It is -207 (-3.04%) below.

Cocoa prices are rapidly lower due to hopes of profitable rains in West Africa today, which is expected to improve the possibilities for the cocoa crop of the region. Weather forecasts are calling to continue in the world’s two largest coco-producing countries, in Ivory Coast and Ghana through this week.

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The damage in London Cocoa after the British pound (^GBPUSD) was limited today, which fell at the lowest level of the 1-week, which increases the cocoa that is priced at sterling.

Rebounds in current cocoa inventions are also a slowdown for prices. Since falling at a 21-year low of 1,263,493 bags on 24 January, the ice-monitor cocoa inventory held at US ports has been rebounded and climbed 8-3/4 months high of 2,259,665 bags on Monday.

Coco prices have a slow underlying support for the slow export of cocoa from Ivory Coast, indicating future cocoa supply. Today’s government data has shown that the farmers of Ivory Coast sent 1.64 MMT to Kocoa to port from 1 October to 8 June, +7.2% from last year but below the very large +35% increase in December.

At the end of last month, NY Cocoa reached a high level of 4 months closest communities over the weather concerns in West Africa. Despite the recent rains in West Africa, the drought still covers more than one third of the Ghana and Ivory Coast, according to the African floods and the monitoring of the drought.

Coco prices also have support on quality concerns about Ivory Coast Coco Mid-crop, which is currently being cut through September. Coco processors are complaining about crop quality and have rejected the truck load of Ivory Coast Coco Beans. The processor said that during the main crop, each truck load contains about 5% to 6% poor quality of the middle-crop cocoa.

According to Robobank, the poor quality of the middle-crop between the Ivory Coast is partially attributed to the late rain in the region, which limits crop growth. The middle-crop is small of two annual cocoa crops, which usually begin in April. The average estimates for this year’s Ivory Coast Mid -Falsa are 400,000 mounts, which is -9% of the previous year’s 440,000 tonnes.

Concern that consumer demand for cocoa and cocoa products is a slowdown for cocoa, inspired by fear that tariffs will already increase the prices of high cocoa. On April 10, Barry Calbut AG, one of the world’s largest chocolate manufacturers, reduced its annual sales guidance due to high Cocoa prices and tariff uncertainty. In addition, chocolate manufacturer Harshe company recently stated that Q1 sales have fallen by 14% and said that this is an estimate of $ 15- $ 20 million in tariff costs in Q2, which will promote chocolate prices and increase weight further on consumer demand. In addition, Mondelez International reported weakened-to-intake Q1 sales, stating that consumers are cutting back on snack purchases due to economic uncertainty and high chocolate prices.

Coco prices recently have a positive carryover from reports that indicate the demand for better-and-and-intake global cocoa. Q1 North American Coco Grinding -2.5% y/y fell to 110,278 mt, better than the expectations of falling at least -5% y/y. In addition, Q1 European Coco Grinding fell to 353,522 mt at -3.7% y/y, -5% y/y drop compared to expectations for y/y drop. In addition, Q1 Asian Coco Peace -3.4% Y/Y Fall to 213,898 MT, at least -5% Y/Y compared to expectations for the collapse of Y/Y.

The supply of small cocoa from Ghana, the world’s second largest coco producer, Kokobod, is helpful for prices after the regulator of Ghana, the forecast of its Ghana 2024/25 cocoa crop reduced the 750,000 mount estimates for 617,500 mounts of 617,500 mounts this season in December.

On 30 May, the International Coco Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global Cocoa deficit from -494,000 MT to -441,000 tonnes of February estimate, the largest deficit in more than 60 years. ICCO said that the production of 2023/24 cocoa fell -13.1% y/y fell to 4.380 mmt. The ICCO stated that the 2023/24 global cocoa stock/grinding ratio was 27.0%, 46 years low. Further for 2024/25, ICCO estimated the global coco surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25 on 28 February, first surplus in 4 years. ICCO also estimated that 2024/25 global cocoa production would increase from +7.8% y/y to 4.84 mmt.

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