July Arabica Coffee (Kcn25) Today +13.60 ( +3.93%), and July ice robusta coffee (RMN25) Above +101 ( +2.26%).
Today, the prices of coffee are rapidly higher, Arabica is posting at a height of 1 week. Today’s rally in real Brazil (^Usdbrl) Coffee futures have been covered in a high level of 3-week against the dollar. Brazilian coffee producers have strong real real to strengthen export sales.
Don’t remember one day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for the best-in-class commodity analysis of Barkart.
There is a concern that bad weather in Brazil will reduce crop yields, increasing the prices of coffee. Somar Meporologia said on Monday that there was no rain in the week ended May 31, the area of Brazil’s largest Arabica Coffee Mean Gerass.
On Tuesday, the Arabica coffee decreased by 1-3/4 months, and Robusta decreased by 7 months as coffee prices have come down under crop pressure in Brazil. Safras and Markado reported that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was 20% complete till 28 May, which was below the five -year average of 21% for the same time of the year.
Coffee prices have been under pressure in the last one month due to concerns about high coffee production and adequate supply. On May 19, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) estimates that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase 0.5% year-on-year (Y/Y) to 65 million bags and Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will increase by 6.9% y/y to 31 million bags. Brazilian Arabica is the world’s largest producer of coffee, and Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of Robsta coffee.
Increase in ice coffee inventions is reducing the prices of coffee. On May 30, ice-marneted Robusta Coffee Inventors rose to 5,438 lots of 8-1/2 months. In addition, ice-mein-monitored arabica coffee inventors reached a 4-month high of 892,468 bags on Tuesday.
On 9 May, the USDA 2025/26 forecast of coffee production in Central America’s largest coffee manufacturer Honduras will climb 5.1% y/y to 5.8 million bags. In addition, consultation firm Safras and Markadado increased their Brazil 2025/26 coffee production estimated 65.51 million bags from the earlier estimate of 62.45 million bags. In addition, Brazilian crop forecasting agency Conb increased its Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate to 55.7 million bags from January 51.81 million bag.
The concerns of demand for coffee prices are recession. Several global commodity importers, including Starbucks, Harshe, and Mondelez International, recently stated that the US baseline on imports will increase 10% tariff prices and further pressure sales quantity.
Small coffee from Brazil is fast for export prices. On 12 May, Cecafe reported that April Green Coffee export -28% y/y fell to 3.05 million bags, and JAN -APR fell 13.186 million bags at -15.5% Y/Y.
Robusta coffee has low Robusta production support. Due to drought, Vietnam’s coffee production in 2023/24 crop year declined to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. In addition, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam said that 2024 Vietnam coffee export -17.1% y/y fell to 1.35 mmt. Last Tuesday, the National Statistics Office of Vietnam said that Vietnam’s 2025 public -April coffee exports range from -9.8% y/y to 663,000 MT. In addition, on March 12, the Vietnam Coffee and Coco Association cut their 2024/25 Vietnam Coffee Productions in 26.5 million bags from December 28 million bag. In contrast, on May 19, the USDA FAS estimated that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee crop would climb on a 4 -year high 30 million bags at 7% y/y.
On December 18, USDA’s biennial report was mixed for coffee prices. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) estimated that world coffee production +4.0% y/y will increase to 174.855 million bags in 2024/25, +1.5% increase in arabica production will increase by 97.845 million bags and Robusta production in 77.01 million bags will increase by +7.5%. The USDA FAS predicts that at the end of 2024/25, the stock will fall from 22.347 million bags in 2023/24 to a 25 -year low of a 25 -year low of 20.867 million bags. Separate, on November 22, the USDA FAS placed Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee production below the previous forecast of 69.9 mm at 66.4 mm. The USDA’s FAS projected Brazil’s coffee inventions on 1.2 million bags at the end of the 2024/25 season in June, down -26% y/y.
For the 2025/26 marketing year, on December 17, Volcafe cut its 2025/26 Brazil Arabica Coffee Productions in 34.4 million bags, after a crop tour, the severity of an expanded drought in Brazil was detected in Brazil by a September estimate after a crop tour. Volcafe performs a global 2025/26 billion coffee deficiency -8.5 million bag, which is more than a -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth year of the fifth consecutive year is the fifth year.
On the date of publication,
There were no securities mentioned in this article (either direct or indirectly). All information and data in this article is only for informative purposes. For more information, please see the Barcart Disclosure Policy
Here,
More news than barkart
The idea and opinion expressed here are the idea and opinion of the author and not necessarily Nasdac, Inc.
