September Arabica Coffee (Kcu25) On Monday +15.35 ( +5.36%), and September Ice Robusta Coffee (Rmu25) +303 ( +9.42%) closed.

Coffee prices rose on Monday, Arabica climbed on coffee to a 2-week height. Excessive dryness in Brazil reduced funds in coffee futures on Monday after Monday meteor, when Brazilian’s biggest Arabica Coffee-Uugne region, Minas Gres, did not rain during the week ended July 12.

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Arabica Coffee also has some Carryover support from last Wednesday, when President Trump said he would impose 50% tariffs on US imports from Brazil, effective from 1 August. The danger worried that coffee supply could be interrupted by Brazil, which is the world’s largest producer of Arabiaa coffee.

Robusta coffee was under pressure and drowned in the nearest communities of 14 months on Monday before he recovered due to indications of an increased coffee supply from Vietnam. Last Monday, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s Jan-Joon 2025 Coffee Exports +4.1% Y/Y to 943,000 MT.

Last Tuesday, Sep Arabica Coffee posted a contract less, and last Monday, July (N25) fell to a 7.5-month low in the nearest-Bhavya contract, as the advance coffee crop of coffee crop in Brazil was at weight prices. Safras and Markado said last Friday that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest had completed 69% by 9 July, ahead of the comparable level of 66% last year and the 5-year average of 62%. Breakdown revealed that 88% of Robusta Harvest and 58% of Arabica Harvest was completed by 9 July. Meanwhile, Brazil’s COXPE Coffee Co-op said on Tuesday that the group’s coffee harvest was completed as 40% as July 4, compared to 52% at the same time last year. Cooxupe is Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and Brazilian largest exporting group.

Coffee prices have retreated in the last two months as the approach to the supply of abundant coffee supplies low prices. On 25 June, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) estimated that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production would increase by 0.5% Y/Y to 65 million bags and Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output would increase by 6.9% y/y to 31 million bags to a 4 -year high of 31 million bags. Brazilian Arabica is the world’s largest producer of coffee, and Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of Robsta coffee.

After jumping 5,477 lots of Robusta coffee inventors at a high level of 9.75 months on Monday, coffee prices are also under pressure due to increase in snow-marketing inventions. In addition, the ice-monitor Arabica Coffee Inventories reached 5.25 months high 892,468 bags on May 27 and were below that high on 828,678 bags by Monday.

Due to drought, 1.472 MMT from -20% y/y became the smallest crop in four years from -20% y/y at Vietnam’s coffee production in 2023/24 crop year. In addition, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam said that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports -from 17.1% y/y to 1.35 mmt. Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Coco Association reduced its 2024/25 Vietnam Coffee Production Estimate to 26.5 million bags below December 12 from December 28 million.

The bipolar report of the USDA released on 25 June was a recession for coffee prices. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) estimated that world coffee production +2.5% y/y will increase to 178.68 million bags in 2025/26, a decrease in billion production -1.7% will increase by 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in 81.658 million bags. The USDA FAS estimates that the final stock of 2025/26 will climb on a 21.752 million bags in 2024/25 to +4.9% to 22.819 million bags.

For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe performs a global 2025/26 billion coffee deficit -8.5 million bags, which exceeds the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and lacks fifth consecutive year.

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