September Arabica Coffee (Kcu25) Monday closed -3.65 (-1.20%), and September ice robusta coffee (Rmu25Closed -41 (-1.12%) closed.

Coffee prices decreased rapidly on Monday as abundant rainfall in Brazil has reduced dryness concerns and is positive for the country’s coffee crops. Somar Meporologia said on Monday that Brazil’s largest Arab Coffee-Uugne region, Minas Gerace received 5 mm of rain during the week ended 28, is 714% of the historic average.

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Coffee prices have retreated in the last two months, Arabica Coffee has reduced by 6-3/4 months last Friday. The approach to abundant coffee supply is reducing prices. Last Wednesday, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase 0.5% year-on-year (Y/Y) to 65 million bags and Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will increase by 6.9% y/y to 31 million bags to a high level of 31 million bags. Brazilian Arabica is the world’s largest producer of coffee, and Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of Robsta coffee.

Advance coffee crops in Brazil are also weighing on coffee prices. Last Tuesday, Brazil’s Kuxupe Coffee cum-up announced that its members said that the coffee crop was only 24.3% until June 20, compared to 34.2% at the same time last year. Cooxupe is Brazilian’s largest coffee cooperative and Brazilian coffee is the largest exporter. In addition, Safras and Markado recently reported that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was 35% complete till 11 June, slightly behind the comparable level of 37% last year, but in line with an average of 5 years of 35%. Breakdown revealed that 49% of Robusta Harvest and 26% Arab crop was completed by June 11. The Brazilian Arab crop has been slowed down by heavy rains in some areas.

Robusta coffee prices have been supported by tightening supply after snow monitoring, which was reduced to Robusta Coffee Inventors last Thursday at 5,108 lots last Thursday. However, the factor of a recession for Arabica prices is that ice-maniched Arabica Coffee Inventories increased to 892,468 bags of 4-3/4 months on May 27 and were below that high on 841,173 bags as Monday.

Small coffee from Brazil is fast for export prices. Last Wednesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s May Green Coffee exports -2.8 million bags fell from 36% Y/Y.

Due to the drought, the coffee production of Vietnam declined by 20% in the 2023/24 crop year, which became the smallest crop in four years. In addition, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam said that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports -from 17.1% y/y to 1.35 mmt. Last Tuesday, the National Statistics Office of Vietnam said that 2025 Vietnam’s Vietnam’s Jan -Mai Coffee exports are below -1.8% y/y to 813,000 MT. Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Coco Association reduced its 2024/25 Vietnam Coffee Production Estimate to 26.5 million bags below December 12 from December 28 million.

The bipolar report of the USDA released last Wednesday was a recession for coffee prices. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimated that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase in +2.5% y/y to 178.68 million bags, a decrease in billion production by -1.7% will increase by 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in 81.658 million bags. The USDA FAS estimates that the final stock of 2025/26 will climb on a 21.752 million bags in 2024/25 to +4.9% to 22.819 million bags.

For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe performs a global 2025/26 billion coffee deficit -8.5 million bags, which exceeds the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and lacks fifth consecutive year.

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