August wti crude oil (CLQ25) On Monday closed -0.14 (-0.21%), and August RBOB gasoline (Rbq25) Below -0.0215 (-1.00%) closed.

On Monday, crude oil and gasoline prices decreased, in which gasoline fell at a low-lying level of 2-week. The approach for large raw exports from Iraq may promote global oil supply and weigh at prices. Expectations for an increase in Iraqi raw exports may also motivate Saudi Arabia to promote their raw exports to maintain their market share, further enhancing global oil supply glute. The loss in crude due to a weak dollar and rally in S&P 500 was limited on Monday, a new all-time at a high level, reflecting faith in economic outlook that is rapid to demand energy.

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This is a raw raw approach to Iraq to promote raw exports from its northern Kurdish region through the Iraq-Tarki pipeline, where oil exports have been stopped since March 2023. The Iraqi government approved a plan for the semi-late Kurdish region to resume oil exports. Kurdistan hopes that once the export starts, Iraq’s raw market will be supplied with 230,000 BPD crude. Iraq is the second largest oil producer in OPEC.

Crude prices have the support of the carriageover since last Friday when the European Union approved new restrictions on Russian raw exports and its new restrictions on its energy trade on its war in Ukraine. The package of restrictions involves cutting 20 more Russian banks from the international payment system Swift, as well as restrictions imposed on refined Russian petroleum in other countries. A large oil refinery in India, which was with Rosneft PJSC in Russia, was also blacklisted. Additionally, 105 more ships were approved in Russia’s shadow fleet, with the total number above 400 ships.

Concern about a global oil glute is negative for raw prices. On 5 July, OPEC+ agreed to increase its raw production to increase 548,000 barrels (BPD) per day from August 1, more than expectations of an increase of 411,000 BPD starting from 1 August. Saudi Arabia also stated that raw production can follow an additional similar size growth, which is seen as a strategy to reduce oil prices and punish OPEC+ members such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. OPEC+ 2 is promoting outputs to reversed a long production of 2 years, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million BPD of production by September 2026. On 31 May, OPEC+ agreed to an increase of 411,000 BPD in raw production for July, after the same 411,000 BPD increase for June. June Crude Production +360,000 BPD increased to 28.10 million BPD at a high level of 1.5 years.

In an auxiliary factor for oil prices, Bloomberg reported on July 10 that OPEC+ 548,000 barrels are discussing a stagnation in the increase in production further from October, after its next monthly increase. OPEC+ The second half of this year may be concerned about the recession in the demand for global oil, which if the group continues to increase production, the supply can be glute. The International Energy Agency said that the invention is accumulating at the rate of 1 million BPD and has to face the surplus by Q4-2025, equal to 1.5% of the global crude raw consumption in the global crude oil market.

The reduction in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is a boom for oil prices. Vortexa said on Monday that the crude oil stored on the tankers, which was stable for at least seven days, fell from -14% W/W to 66.31 million BBL in the week ended July 18.

Last Wednesday’s weekly EIA report has revealed that the US raw invention in the week ended July 11 was the first draw in three weeks to fall from BBLS -3.859 million BBLS. Gasoline inventors +3.399 million BBLS rose, and distilled inventories +4.173 million BBLS increased. The EIA report showed that (1) until July 11, the list of American crude oil was below -8.0% below the seasonal 5 -year average, (2) Gasoline inventions were below -0.1% below the seasonal 5 -year average, and (3) Dillted Inventory was below -21.1% from 5 -year -year season. The production of American crude oil in the week ended on July 11 -0.1% w/w fell to 13.375 million BPD, posted in a week of 12/631 million BPD in a week of 12/6/2024 below the record high of BPD.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active American oil leakage in the week ended July 18 came down from the -2 rigs to the new 3.75 -year low of 422 rigs. In the last 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen rapidly at the 5.25-year high of the 627 Rigs reported in December 2022.

On the date of publication,

Rich aspland

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