Dollar index (Dxy00) On Tuesday, +0.55%increased. The dollar received support as a 10-year-old T-Note daily as a +5BP and a 30-year T-bond yield exceeded 5% for the first time in 1.5 months. Increase in treasury yields supported the dollar interest rate difference.
Tuesday’s US CPI report generated some favorable initial media coverage as the June core CPI report +0.2% m/m +was slightly lower than expectations of 0.3%. However, there were some scattered signs of reverse pressure from tariffs, and this pressure is expected to increase in the coming months. Apart from this, both headline and core CPI reports increased from May to year from May.
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In particular, June US CPI +increased 0.3% m/m, which was in line with the market expectations, while the year-by-year figure of +2.7% was slightly defective by +2.6% expectations and above 2.4% of May. The June US core CPI +increased 0.2% m/m, which was slightly better than expectations of +0.3%. On the basis of year-on-year, the June US core CPI +2.9% in line with Y/Y, but increased by 2.8% of May.
The CPI report did not change expectations to cut the Fed rate in its July meeting, but before the CPI report, the 57% versus 65% September meeting led to a decrease in expectations for the cut rate cut. Federal Fund Futures prices are currently giving discounts in the following meeting on 3% in July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 57% in September 16-17 in 57% September meeting.
Treasury Secretary Besant said that the US-China trade talks are in “very good places”, which reduced the safe-heaven demand for the dollar. He also said that the US-China deadline is flexible and told the market participants “Don’t worry about August 12.” Mr. Besant confirmed that the Trump administration told Nvidia that Chinese firms would be given a license for the sale of its advanced H20 GPU chips and “all mosaic” in the US-China talks. He also said that he is expected to meet Lifeng with Chinese Vice Premier in August.
President Trump said that his administration was also some positive trade news after reaching a trade agreement with Indonesia. However, American imports from Indonesia around $ 2.8 billion will withstand American tariffs of 19%, which is likely to increase the price paying for the US consumer Indonesian goods.
EUR/USD (^Eurusd) Dollars fell due to strength in -0.60%. The Euro was also reduced by a decline of -1.7 BP in 10 -year -old Bund yield on Tuesday, which reduced the interest rate difference of euro, which is a 10 -year T -Rot yield, which increased +5.0 BP.
The Euro saw the underlying support from the news that the July German ZEW Awards increased +5.2 in the index index to 47.5 to 52.7 in June, stronger than expectations for growth of 50.4.
The Euro also saw the underlying support because the May Eurozone Industrial Production Report +1.7% m/m and +3.7% y/y +1.0% m/m and +2.2% y/y was stronger than the market expectations.
In the July 24 policy meeting, 2% of the probability of cutting -25 bp rate cut by ECB is pricing.
USD/JPY (^Usdjpy) Rose +0.78%on dollar strength. Additionally, Yen is under pressure due to concerns about the upcoming Upper House election in Japan on 20 July. Voters have given rise to concerns of the promises of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party promises and low taxes by the opposition, which is a recession for Yen.
August gold (Gcq25) Closed on Tuesday -22.40 (-0.67%), and September silver (Siu25) Below -0.632 (-1.63%) closed down. Precious metals fell at +0.5% increase in dollars index and 10-year T-Rot yield at +5BP growth. After Monday’s contracts fell back from high, sep silver saw some long liquidity. July 2025 Silver returned to the 14-year high of Monday at the closest-future chart.
Prices of precious metals also returned to some favorable trade news as Treasury Secretary Besant claimed that the US-Chinese trade talks were in “very good place” and as President Trump announced a business deal with Indonesia.
On the date of publication,
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