August wti crude oil (CLQ25) On Thursday +0.32 ( +0.49%), and August RBOB gasoline (Rbq25) +1.17 ( +0.57%) closed.

On Thursday, crude oil and gasoline prices ralled lightly to lower the dollar index (DXY00) to reduce lightly 3–1/4 years. In addition, Thursday’s rally in S&P500 showed confidence in the 4 -month high -level economic approach, which supported energy demand and raw price prices. The Crude Oil also supported the carriageover from Wednesday’s EIA report, showing a large-to-the-to-first draw and American gasoline demand in crude oil inventions at a high level of 3–1/2 years.

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Crude oil prices have a underlying support from the US and European intelligence reports, suggesting that Iran still has a 60% stockpile of 60%, which is 60% rich uranium even after Israel and US bombing, which means that there is a possibility of restrictions until Iran’s atomic inspections are agreed. However, the US and Iran have interacted for the next week, and the US may still shine on the rich uranium problem and offer to reduce or eliminate restrictions.

Concern about a global oil glute is negative for raw prices. On Wednesday, Russia said it is open to another output growth for OPEC+ crude production in August, when the group meets on 6 July. On 31 May, OPEC+ 411,000 for July agreed on BPD Crude Production Hike, after increasing the output from the same amount for June. Saudi Arabia has indicated that raw production can follow an additional similar size growth, which is seen as a strategy to reduce oil prices and punish OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. OPEC+ 2 is promoting output to reversed a 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million BPD production. OPEC + first planned to restore production between January and the end of 2025, but now the production cuts will not be completely restored by September 2026. OPEC May Raw Production +200,000 BPD increased to 27.54 million BPD.

The projection of the American Automobile Association (AAA) in gasoline prices supports a record 61.6 million people from the car on July 28 million (June 28 to July 6), +2.2% and strong gasoline from last year.

Tariff concerns continue to reduce oil prices, as President Trump recently said that he intends to send letters to dozens of American business partners within one to two weeks, installing unilateral tariffs before the 90-day stop after 90-day end.

The decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is a rise for oil prices. Vortexa said on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers which were stable for at least seven days, fell from -13% W/W to 79.66 million BBL in the week ended June 20.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) The invention of American crude oil until June 20 was -10.9% below the seasonal 5 -year average, (2) Gasoline invention was below -2.8% below the seasonal 5 -year average, and (3) distilleted inventory was below -20.3% below the 5 -year -year average. In the week ending June 20, American crude oil production was below the record high of 13.631 million BPD from December 6, unchanged W/W at 13.435 million BPD.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the American oil fell from 3-3/4 years low of 438 rigs in a week ended on June 20. In the last 2–1/2 years, the number of US oil leakage has fallen from the 5–1/4-year high of the 627 rigs posted in December 2022.

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