July Ice NY cocoa (Ccn25) Wednesday -263 (-2.65%), and July Ice London Coco #7 (Can25) -202 (-3.14%) closed.

Cocoa prices were added to Tuesday’s loss on Wednesday and London Cocoa decreased rapidly, with a decrease of 2–1/2 weeks. For West Africa, rain forecasts are expected to benefit the cocoa crops of the region and are recession for prices. Forecaster Vaisala said on Tuesday that in the last few days, heavy to moderate rains have fallen in West Africa and are expected to remain till the end of the week.

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Rebounds in current cocoa inventions are also a slowdown for prices. Since falling at a 21-year low of 1,263,493 bags on 24 January, the ice-monitor cocoa inventory held at US ports has been rebounded and climbed a 9-1/4-month high of 2,363,861 bags on Wednesday.

Coco prices have some support from Ivory Coast to the slow pace of cocoa exports, which can tighten the supply of future cocoa. Monday’s official data has shown that the farmers of Ivory Coast sent 1.66 mm to Cocoa to port from 1 October to 15 June, +6.4% from last year but below a very large +35% increase in December.

Small cocoe exports support Cocoa prices, on last Wednesday, Nigerian April Coco is exported up to 18,561 MT after the news of a fall -11% y/y down. Nigeria is the fourth largest cocoa exporter in the world.

At the end of the previous month, NY Cocoa reached a high level of 4–1/2 months in the closest-future of the weather in West Africa. Despite the recent rains in West Africa, the drought still covers more than one third of the Ghana and Ivory Coast, according to the African floods and the monitoring of the drought.

Coco prices also have support on quality concerns about Ivory Coast Coco Mid-crop, which is currently being cut through September. Coco processors are complaining about crop quality and have rejected the truck load of Ivory Coast Coco Beans. The processor said that during the main crop, each truck load contains about 5% to 6% poor quality of the middle-crop cocoa. According to Robobank, the poor quality of the middle-crop between the Ivory Coast is partially attributed to the late rain in the region, which limits crop growth. The middle-crop is small of two annual cocoa crops, which usually begin in April. The average estimates for this year’s Ivory Coast Mid -Falsa are 400,000 mounts, which is -9% of the previous year’s 440,000 tonnes.

Cocoa and Cocoa products concern about consumer demand for cocoa is slow, inspired by apprehensions that tariffs will already increase the prices of high cocoa. On April 10, Barry Calbut AG, one of the world’s largest chocolate manufacturers, reduced its annual sales guidance due to high Cocoa prices and tariff uncertainty. In addition, chocolate manufacturer Harshe company recently stated that Q1 sales have fallen by 14% and said that this is an estimate of $ 15- $ 20 million in tariff costs in Q2, which will promote chocolate prices and increase weight further on consumer demand. Mondelez International reported weakened-to-prepared Q1 sales, stating that consumers are cutting back on snack purchases due to economic uncertainty and high chocolate prices.

The weak demand from the cocoa processor was seen in Q1. Q1 North American Coco Grinding fell to 110,278 mt to 110,278 mt. Q1 European Coco Grinding fell to 3.7% y/y. Q1 Asian cocoa piece -3.4% y/y fell to 213,898 mt.

On 30 May, the International Coco Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global Cocoa deficit from -494,000 MT to -441,000 tonnes of February estimate, the largest deficit in more than 60 years. ICCO said that the production of 2023/24 cocoa fell -13.1% y/y fell to 4.380 mmt. The ICCO stated that the 2023/24 global cocoa stock/grinding ratio was 27.0%, 46 years low. Further for 2024/25, ICCO estimated the global coco surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25 on 28 February, first surplus in 4 years. ICCO also estimated that 2024/25 global cocoa production would increase from +7.8% y/y to 4.84 mmt.

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