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Monday, 30 June 2025
Economy

France’s defence spending surge threatened by high national debt

France’s defence spending surge threatened by high national debt

French’s high national debt threatened to curb its defense ambitions, leading to the risk that one of Europe’s strongest terrorists would not be able to maintain with the expected wave of expenditure.

President Emmanuel Macron has increased the annual military budget between 3 to 3.5 percent of national production to about 2 percent, which doubles the annual expenses from last year’s levels to € 100BN in 2030.

Such an effort will bring France to the new goals for direct military expenses NATO June 1 is expected to be set at summit as the alliance responds to American pressure for Europe To more on security,

But MPs and analysts are questioning whether France can distribute, given that the minority government is struggling to gather and Pass a fiscal package For narrow reduction which are the worst of the region.

A former minister and the head of the government’s think-tank, a Clement Buoon, an analysis in May, in which a “radical push” was found to find money for rescue, which would be needed with honesty with the public about further difficult options.

“Looking at our worse early points on debt, we have to make more efforts than other countries,” said Buoon.

“In France, and it is probably different from elsewhere, we cannot even return to our deficit deficiency goals, nor can we increase taxes because they are already too much.”

French President Emmanuel Macron talks to Ukrainian soldiers © Thibalt Camus/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

Instead, Buen’s report recommends a combination of economic reforms to expand the state -spending curb, labor force and European joint borrowings, although there is no consensus in favor of such a loan between the member states of the European Union.

France has racked only a mountain of national loan to reach a loan-S-GDP ratio of 113 percent behind Greece and Italy only behind Greece and Italy. Budget shortage at the end of 2024 was more than 5.8 percent of GDP, which was far more than the European Union’s boundary.

The situation leaves macron in a bind. The French leader has preferred the reconstruction of the army after decades of decades after the Cold War. France passed a gradual multier Military budget It is going on from 2019 to 2030, aimed at repairing its humiliated forces.

Under those schemes, the annual expenditure except for pension has increased from € 36BN in 2019 to the forecast in 2030, or up to 90 percent. Experts have warned that the benefit from this expenditure will at least partially disappear by inflation.

France should spend its atomic warheads, submarines, fighter jets, an aircraft carrier and about 200,000 personnel. It also wants to recruit more reservoirs. Atomic capacity is about 13 percent of the overall equipment budget.

In March, Macron asked the Prime Minister François Bairo to come up with options to increase military expenses keeping in mind the promise of deficit cuts.

Bero has not done so, saying that he is still working on the budget of 2026, a delay that has disturbed Macron, people close to the President said.

Macron has refused to increase taxes, saying that a “difficult choice and courage” was required to enable high military expenses.

Since Russia’s full -scale invasion in Ukraine, Macron has advocated becoming an independent military power for Europe, while Kiev has supported with weapons. But critics say his message has been weakened by France, which lacks the same means of sending the same military assistance to Ukraine as Germany and Britain.

“If France wants to remain a military leader in Europe, we have to set an example with our actions, not only with our words,” said Dominic D Leg, a senator of the Conservative Less Rapes Party.

A report by D. Leg found that funding for Ukraine and the deployment of a French contingent for NATO’s eastern flank had abolished the cost in 2024, inspired to delay payment on the bills of about € 8BN to the Armed Forces Ministry.

The industry has complained that some orders have been given this year despite the promises of Macron’s “war economy”.

Experts have warned that when the current plan grows through 2030, it looks big on paper, but there will be no step in fighting capabilities. New weapons are also more expensive, so France will end with low Rafale jets – 225 in 2035 vs. 254 – and less tanks, below 222 in 2035 in 2035 in 20021, below 222 in 20021, despite spending more.

During November 2024 NATO exercise, French soldiers operate a Caesar Howitzer
During November 2024 NATO exercise, French soldiers operate a Caesar Howitzer © Jonathan Neckstrand/AFP/Getty Images

Critics say the strategy of having a full range of military capabilities of France – is based on large armies like America – it means that it ends with one “Bonsai Army”Reference to Japanese art of small trees cultivation. But the force on its sub-mamne has been unable to war for a long time, said a defense expert at Paris-based Effri think-tank élie Tenenbaum, said, said.

A French official said that for next year “the military budget grows planned for the next year, not at all on the table” and efforts will be made to maintain existing expenses schemes through 2030.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Armed Forces is working on identifying capacity intervals, if France moves towards the goals of the new NATO. “It is committed to spending more without a strategy,” the official said, defense contractors will also need time to expand.

Government officials and MPs said that they were not worried about losing their position as the country’s top European military power because Nuclear arsenal Will continue to separate it. France’s atomic principles and abilities, such as submarines and fighter jets, means that it is under the only control of its defense strategy.

Some European countries like Germany And Poland expressed interest in France More clearly Extending safety for your neighbors as they fret about relying on the American nuclear umbrella.

Officers and MPs also argue that France has a strategically thinking culture about its army, and its forces have operated abroad like Sahel and Afghanistan.

Considering its supporters European trend, Macron has called for the European Union to go ahead to help the member states re -binding, by applying the common lending mechanisms used during the Covid -19 epidemic, by providing more joint weapons and purchases.

He considers the new policies unveiled by the European Commission in March very limited as they significantly rely on enabling more national borrowings, a strategy that will not help those countries that already have high loans.

Under the European Union scheme, countries may find temporary suspensions of the European Union Cap to promote military expenses up to 1.5 percent of GDP. By the end of April, 16 countries have applied for the so -called National migration sectionIncluding Germany and Poland.

But France currently has no intention of doing so, the official said, as this bond is afraid to tease investors and add high interest costs already.

Last year France paid € 59bn at the cost of lending, more than the defense budget. The National Auditor has stated that this year may increase to € 67BN and by 2029 – more than education expenses, its largest current budget line.

France can participate in another part of the European Union’s plan, which will provide countries to provide European Union -backed loans to jointly purchase arms.

“There is an important risk that France will be passed by neighboring countries such as Germany and Poland, working hard to increase military expenses quickly,” said Tennbam.

“We think ourselves as only serious players, but this is not really true.”

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