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FT editor Rula Khalf, selects his favorite stories in this weekly newspaper.

The author is a faculty member in Yale, a former president of Morgan Stanley Asia, and the author of the ‘casual struggle: America, China, and the conflict of false stories’.

Controversy revolves over the future of Hong Kong. I recently played a small role in provoking the debate, Write 16 months ago: “I feel pain to say that Hong Kong is over.” Since then, a part of the story has separated, even if long -term trends retain.

Point to be noted is that Hong Kong There is very little similarity than your former self. After the 1997 handover from Great Britain to People’s Republic of China, the 50 -year internetum has been cut in half. A special administrative area on paper, Hong Kong is now just one more large Chinese city.

Yes, it brings a unique genealogy for its new identity that other Chinese cities do not share. Disclaimed in the legacy of a former British colony for over 150 years, well -developed institutions and market structures of Hong Kong had separated it for a long time, which can be found almost anywhere in the world, especially in the mainland ChinaBut this is what is on a fast-track to become a “over” now-a word that I do not take lightly.

At the forefront is an important infection in governance. Intolerant of the growing democracy movement, Beijing has rejected the possibility of universal franchise promised in the Constitution of Hong Kong, or the basic law of Hong Kong. Under the new national security strictness, Hong Kong’s once -nurtured governance, the crown of its special autonomy, is now in the tatters. Today, Hong Kong’s rule of law is made in Beijing. And here is Informed This week that National Security Officers have launched a joint operation with the police in Hong Kong.

The dramatic change in the political grounds of Hong Kong was one of the three ideas in my argument. A second point was the status of its economy, especially its tight relationship for the ups and downs of the Chinese economy. As China goes, he goes to Hong Kong.

The number speaks for itself: In the 13 years ending in 2024, the average Hong Kong GDP growth is 3.7 percent of the slowdown of 3.7 percent (at a speed of 5.1 percent since 1980 from 1980) is similar to the 3.8 percent point in the development of the Chinese economy in the same period in the same period. Both economies are included in the hip.

In front of China’s ongoing development conflicts, the possibility of a spontaneous revival in Hong Kong’s economy is highly remote. There is a possibility of tolerating several economic conflicts of the city, without re -regaining its impressive growth Mojo.

Third, I argued that Hong Kong’s trade-dependent economy would suffer from getting caught in the crossfire of US-China conflict. This is one aspect of my argument that is now entitled Rethinking. Powered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff war, the global trade cycle is changing as expected – especially in Asia where economic relations are very important for Hong Kong. But this result has not implicated Hong Kong because I originally doubted.

Instead, Hong Kong has benefited from the more powerful stress of financial decupping between the US and China. This development is playing for the benefit of the region as China’s International Financial Center, increasing a new wave of capital raising capital by mainland companies and promotes investors’ spirit of rising risks of the “selling-America” ​​rejection of the US dollar. While the US-China conflict is a negative for the real economic grounds of Hong Kong, so far, the opposite has proved to be a case for its financial sector.

Referring to this subsequent development, the Hang Seng Index has increased by 60 percent from its January 2024 climb, in the same period the CSI 300 overall index has increased by 21 percent. Never notice that HSI is 22 percent below its early 2021 heights, this resurrection is taken by many people – especially Hong Kong’s political punditree – my wildly unpopular thesis as a powerful radiation of the oligious thesis that “Hong Kong is over.”

Yes, it is quite possible that Hang Seng may continue to perform better, especially if the forces of China-American financial decupping intensify. In fact, I have no doubt that if a vote is held today, the US would support the Congress Chinese companies delete From American stock exchanges. But to repeat, my negative case stool for Hong Kong had three legs. Still stumble with two legs, in the best form, more inclination on the financial leg rarely makes for a stable stool.

This does not mean that Hong Kong is not special. Like his big neighbors in Greater Bay Area – Shenzhen with his technology, Guangzhou with his advanced manufacturing – Hong Kong’s role as China’s major international financial center is certainly quite special. Like any other big Chinese city.