On June 13, Israel killed Iran, before Brent crude was hovering around $ 69 per barrel. Attack – After US participation in the weekend – prices of about $ 10 increased. Nevertheless, the rally was quickly out, as the markets explained the role of America as a sign that Iran was unlikely to move forward. When the Iranian missiles targeted an American base in Qatar, there was no harm, the traders read it as another sign that Tehran was watching to reduce stress. Traders focused on an familiar pattern from Iran – the purpose of launching the attacks was less damage and more to please their domestic audience. The ceasefire declared on Tuesday attacked a final lid for fear of disintegration

Strong market basic principle
Today’s oil market is far more flexible than the past. A year ago, crude was trading around $ 84 per barrel; Today, it is close to $ 68, reflecting a well -supplied market. OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia have been increasing the output from May, providing a cushion against the potential supply shock. Meanwhile, the global oil landscape has developed – America has emerged as the world’s largest producer, pumps about 13 million barrels a day – ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia, which produces about 9 million each. Importantly, the US and other advanced economies also have large strategic stores. The Biden administration exploited these stores for an extended period to combat the supply disruptions and kept the prices under investigation – a device that the Trump can use equally when needed.

Why the fear of Hermuz’s Strait did not stop
The biggest concern was that Iran could close the straight of Hormuz, an important channel for global oil and gas shipment. As Hauthis displayed, even a handful of missile attacks can scare commercial ships. But the risk of rigorous American vengeance – and the possibility of separating neighbors and major importers like China – prevents Tehran from going down from that path. A closure could also cut the revenue of its oil in Iran and block the import of necessary.
Why did Iran choose restraint
Iran’s silent vengeance came down to difficult realities. The risk of a major war-one that can erase its leadership and immerse the country in long-term chaos-was very high. The example of Iraq, which faced years of instability after the 2003 American invasion, would have a heavy weight on Tehran. Meanwhile, the Israeli strike had already reduced its military capabilities, making it no match for the US forces. Its symbolic missile attack on an American base in Qatar did not harm and was seen more as a measure of facial savings than an increase.

A weak economy left very little space for aggression
Years of US sanctions have crippled Iran’s economy. Its oil sales are restricted, mainly on the sale of deeply discovered for China. A long -term struggle eradicated its remaining export revenue and brought its delicate economy to the brink. Losing regional colleagues weakened Iran’s traditional regional support. Hamas and Hizbullah, its long -standing proxy forces have been removed from Israeli attacks. Syrian has fallen for unfortunate forces. Meanwhile, the US has strengthened relations with Saudi Arabia – Iran’s largest rival – and Russia fell down into Ukraine and weakened by Western sanctions, losing the project’s capacity to impact. Even China is not ready to deepen its commitment to Iran, a critic of American aggression.