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FT editor Rula Khalf, selects his favorite stories in this weekly newspaper.

Donald Trump’s impact of cuts in government programs and his tariff policies are expected to be shown in the June US Jobs report, which is expected to slow the hiring.

Data will show the US 120,000 pairs on Thursday Jobs In June, according to the forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg, below 139,000 a month ago. The unemployment rate is expected to increase from 4.2 percent to 4.3 percent.

The June data should take to the public labor force to occupy job loss due to heavy cuts from the Trump administration. Statistics will also reflect any recession in recruitment which has happened as companies. TariffConsumer spending has slowed down in recent months, which can also do corporate hiring.

From the end of 2021 to the highest level to continue the claims in June in June, suggesting that it has become difficult for those who have lost their jobs to find new people. Economists in the city said that this month, unemployment can send more to the rate.

He wrote, “Increase in continuing claims assures us more that the unemployment rate will start growing again. We project 4.4 percent unemployment in next week’s report for June,” he wrote.

Nevertheless, changes in June may not be sufficient dramatic to persuade the Federal Reserve to cut. Interest rates Before September.

“It is very clear that the fed is getting ready to rest again. If we get one or two soft reports, they would be ready to leave,” said the senior economist of the income fixed income at Eric Vinograph, Ericbernstein. However, Vinograd is not expecting weakness marked this month. “I expect continuity in this report.” Kate Dugid

Will Eurozone inflation will confirm that ECB deduction is almost done?

The inflation figures on Tuesday will provide another clue for one of the biggest questions in Europe’s financial markets: whether the European Central Bank is close to the end of its interest rate cut cycle.

ECB President Christine Lagard said earlier this month, because the Central Bank reduced it. borrowing costs From a quarter points to 2 percent, that it was “almost terminated” that has reduced the policy rate from a 4 percent summit last year.

Despite the euro region, the swap markets are pricing only another quarterly-point cuts in the coming year. inflation ECB falls below 2 percent target to reach 1.9 percent in May.

Economists voted by Reuters hope that it will be back to 2 percent in June. This forecast is shared by the Bank of America analysts, who expect it to be a temporary growth “due to a spike in oil [that] Should be correct in July. ,

Investors are still waiting to see if there is a hit of eurozone growth from American tariffs. If a slowdown comes, the ability to react with the cut in the rate of ECB depends on the path of inflation. Ian Smith

Is business tension still killing activity in China?

China releases several data early next week, which will give investors a clear picture of how Asia’s largest economy has affected trade tension with the US.

Official manufacturing and non-construction purchasing managers for June are scheduled to be held on Monday, and according to a Reuters Poll by economists, expected to show a reading of 49.7. Any reading below 50 indicates a contraction.

On Tuesday, Caixin will release its manufacturing PMI, which a Reuters Pol is estimated to be 49 after reading 48.3 in May. The Caixin survey focuses on small and more private-owned businesses, often more export-oriented. The markets are ready for a contraction, but if it is worse than expected it will react negatively.

The country’s manufacturing PMI comes after downbeat consensus Fall unexpectedly In May. More recent data has not provided much space for optimism – the data released on Friday has been shown. Industrial profit slipped 9.1 percent in May.

Property prices are slipping And deflation pressure has increased, while Export to america There was a decline of 34 percent in May.

Weak data suggests that the export and activity provided by “front loading” to overtake our tariff suggests that now disappears.

The index of Nomura, the total export exports of the East-Japanese of Asia, say the bank has properly predicted the previous significant twist points, indicating a sharp decline in Asian export growth “a moderation inspired by the demand for weak imports from China and a moderation in the manufacture of PMI for China and wide EM.

The bank said in a recent note, while Asia’s export growth has done better due to tariff-powered front loading in March and April, we have seen some signs of pebacks for many countries in May. ” William Sandalund