Once labelled as the asteroid with the highest-ever recorded impact risk to Earth, 2024 YR4 has resurfaced in scientific discussions, not due to threats to our planet, but because it now has a slightly higher chance of hitting the Moon in 2032.
NASA recently revealed that improved observations from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) have sharpened the asteroid’s projected path, as reported by Space.com. The latest data, gathered via the telescope’s Near-Infrared Camera and led by Andy Rivkin of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, has increased the estimated chance of a lunar impact from 3.8 per cent to 4.3 per cent. Despite this small uptick, NASA emphasised in its update that “as data comes in, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve.” The agency also clarified that even in the unlikely event of a Moon collision, “it would not alter the moon’s orbit.”
Earth Safe, Moon Still Mostly Fine
Astronomers around the globe have echoed NASA’s reassurance. As per Space.com, Pawan Kumar, a former researcher at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics, explained that a Moon strike wouldn’t pose any threat to Earth. “A collision with the moon won’t be a cause for concern,” Kumar said. Any resulting debris flung toward Earth “blows up in Earth’s atmosphere if any of it makes it to near-Earth space.”
Originally discovered on December 27, 2024, the asteroid is roughly the size of a 10-story building, between 53 and 67 meters in length. It captured widespread attention in early 2025 when its initial projected path showed a more than 1 per cent chance of Earth impact, a record-high estimate for any large asteroid. That probability briefly rose as high as 3.1 per cent, raising concerns about potential blast damage if it struck anywhere from the eastern Pacific to southern Asia. Even then, NASA assessed that while an airburst over a populated area could cause window-shattering shockwaves, the asteroid would not generate devastating tsunamis.
A Perfect Planetary Defence Test Case
As astronomers collected more data, confidence in Earth’s safety grew. By late February, NASA declared an “all clear,” dropping the impact probability to 0.004 per cent. The final verdict: 2024 YR4 poses no danger to Earth, not in 2032, nor in any future approach. Recent findings suggest the asteroid likely originated in the main belt between Mars and Jupiter before shifting into a near-Earth trajectory.
Currently too far and faint to be seen, the asteroid will come back into observational range in 2028. Scientists plan to use that window to further refine its orbit and understand its shape and composition, key factors in modelling future behaviour.
Meanwhile, 2024 YR4 has left a lasting mark not through devastation but as a training ground for planetary defence. “2024 YR4 is a tailor-made asteroid for planetary defence efforts,” said Kumar. “It has everything it takes to get our attention.” He added that the experience was “an actual end-to-end exercise” in how global systems might respond to a real space threat.
For now, Earth is off the hook — but the Moon might just be in for a cosmic surprise.
