September Ice NY Coco (Ccu25) Today +201 ( +2.48%), and September Ice London Coco #7 (Cau25) Below is -66 (-1.20%)

Coco prices are mixed today, with London Cocoa down 8 months’ closest flow has declined. Several European Union (EU) several member states asked the European Commission to delay the application of rules for the purpose of curbing global deforestation, which would allow the European Union countries to continue the supply of Cocoa from countries including Brazil and Ivory Coast, where allegations of deforestation have been continued.

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NY Coco was recovered from a 2.5 -month low today and rapidly shifted as a recession in the Ivory Coast. Cocoa export cocoa was covered in Cocoa Export Cocoa futures. Today’s government data has shown that the farmers of Ivory Coast sent 1.71 MMT to Coco to port from 1 October to 6 July, +6.2% from last year but below the huge +35% increase in December. There are reports that heavy rains in the Ivory Coast are keeping the cocoa growers away from their fields and the ongoing mid-crop cocoa is disrupting the crop.

Coco prices have been sold in the last month on the signs of high global cocoa production. Last Tuesday, the Ghana Coco Board had estimated 2025/26 Ghana Cocoa crop that in 2024/25 it would increase from 600,000 MT to +8.3% Y/Y to 650,000. Ghana is the second largest cocoa producer in the world.

In a recession factor, the snow-marginal Cocoa inventory held in American ports climbed on the 9.75-month high 2,363,861 bags on June 18 and was lightly below that high at 2,333,683 compared to the previous Thursday.

In a recession report released on 25 June, Nigerian May Coco’s exports fell from 29% Y/Y to 14,110 MT. Nigeria is the fourth largest exporter in the world of Coco.

Coco prices support quality concerns about the middle-crop cocoa in the prices of Coco, which is currently being cut through September. Coco processors are complaining about crop quality and have rejected the truck load of Ivory Coast Coco Beans. The processor said that during the main crop, each truck load contains about 5% to 6% poor quality of the middle-crop cocoa. According to Robobank, the poor quality of the middle-crop between the Ivory Coast is partially attributed to the late rain in the region, which limits crop growth. The middle-crop is smaller than two annual cocoa crops, usually beginning in April. The average estimates for this year’s Ivory Coast Mid -Falsa are 400,000 mounts, which is -9% of the previous year’s 440,000 tonnes.

Cocoa and Cocoa products concern about consumer demand for cocoa is slow, inspired by apprehensions that tariffs will already increase the prices of high cocoa. On April 10, Barry Calbut AG, one of the world’s largest chocolate manufacturers, reduced its annual sales guidance due to high Cocoa prices and tariff uncertainty. In addition, chocolate manufacturer Harshe company recently stated that Q1 sales have fallen by 14% and said that this is an estimate of $ 15- $ 20 million in tariff costs in Q2, which will promote chocolate prices and increase weight further on consumer demand. Mondelez International reported weakened-to-prepared Q1 sales, stating that consumers are cutting back on snack purchases due to economic uncertainty and high chocolate prices.

The weak demand from the cocoa processor was seen in Q1. Q1 North American Coco Grinding fell to 110,278 mt to 110,278 mt. Q1 European Coco Grinding fell to 3.7% y/y. Q1 Asian cocoa piece -3.4% y/y fell to 213,898 mt.

On 30 May, the International Coco Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global Cocoa deficit from -494,000 MT to -441,000 tonnes of February estimate, the largest deficit in more than 60 years. ICCO said that the production of 2023/24 cocoa fell -13.1% y/y fell to 4.380 mmt. The ICCO stated that the 2023/24 global cocoa stock/grinding ratio fell to 27.0%at a 46 -year low. Given further for 2024/25, ICCO estimated the global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25 on 28 February, the first surplus in four years. ICCO also estimated that 2024/25 global cocoa production would increase from +7.8% y/y to 4.84 mmt.

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