September Ice NY Coco (Ccu25) On Friday +118 ( +1.46%), and September Ice London Coco #7 (Cau25) Bottom -5 (-0.09%) shut down

On Friday, Cocoa prices stopped mixed, in which London Coco posted a low 8.5 months. Cocoa prices recovered from their worst levels, pushing NY Coco into a positive field, as some pre-visible short coverings were revealed in the cocoa futures.

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कोको की कीमतें पिछले महीने में कमजोर मांग और उच्च वैश्विक कोकोआ उत्पादन के संकेतों पर बिक चुकी हैं, जिसमें एनवाई कोको ने सोमवार को 2.5 महीने का कम और लंदन कोकोआ को 8.5 महीने के निकटतम-कम-से-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-कम-से-कम-कम-से-कम-कम कर दिया।

After the chocolate manufacturer Barry Calbout AG, there is a weight of demand for demand on Cocoa prices on Thursday, which reduced the guidance of sales quantity for the second time in three months, citing Cocoa price volatility. The company recorded a decline in the amount of sales for the whole year and stated that “its biggest decline was seen in the third quarter.”

The supply of large cocoa from Ghana is a slowdown for prices. Last Tuesday, the Ghana Coco Board had estimated 2025/26 Ghana Cocoa crop that in 2024/25 it would increase from 600,000 MT to +8.3% Y/Y to 650,000. Ghana is the second largest cocoa producer in the world.

In a recession factor, the snow-dinner cocoa inventory held at American ports climbed on 2,363,861 bags of 10 months on 18 June and was below that high on 2,328,739 bags by Friday.

An auxiliary factor for cocoa is a sign of recession in Ivory Coast Coco exports. Monday’s official data has revealed that the farmers of Ivory Coast sent 1.71 MMT to Cocoa to port from 1 October to 6 July, +6.2% from last year but below the huge +35% increase in December. There are reports that heavy rains in the Ivory Coast are keeping the cocoa growers away from their fields and the ongoing mid-crop cocoa is disrupting the crop.

Coco prices support quality concerns about the middle-crop cocoa in the prices of Coco, which is currently being cut through September. Coco processors are complaining about crop quality and have rejected the truck load of Ivory Coast Coco Beans. The processor said that during the main crop, each truck load contains about 5% to 6% poor quality of the middle-crop cocoa. According to Robobank, the poor quality of the middle-crop between the Ivory Coast is partially attributed to the late rain in the region, which limits crop growth. The middle-crop is smaller than two annual cocoa crops, usually beginning in April. The average estimates for this year’s Ivory Coast Mid -Falsa are 400,000 mounts, which is -9% of the previous year’s 440,000 tonnes.

Cocoa and Cocoa products concern about consumer demand for cocoa is slow, inspired by apprehensions that tariffs will already increase the prices of high cocoa. On April 10, Barry Calbut AG, one of the world’s largest chocolate manufacturers, reduced its annual sales guidance due to high Cocoa prices and tariff uncertainty. In addition, chocolate manufacturer Harshe company recently stated that Q1 sales have fallen by 14% and said that this is an estimate of $ 15- $ 20 million in tariff costs in Q2, which will promote chocolate prices and increase weight further on consumer demand. Mondelez International reported weakened-to-prepared Q1 sales, stating that consumers are cutting back on snack purchases due to economic uncertainty and high chocolate prices.

The weak demand from the cocoa processor was seen in Q1. Q1 North American Coco Grinding fell to 110,278 mt to 110,278 mt. Q1 European Coco Grinding fell to 3.7% y/y. Q1 Asian cocoa piece -3.4% y/y fell to 213,898 mt.

On 30 May, the International Coco Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global Cocoa deficit from -494,000 MT to -441,000 tonnes of February estimate, the largest deficit in more than 60 years. ICCO said that the production of 2023/24 cocoa fell -13.1% y/y fell to 4.380 mmt. The ICCO stated that the 2023/24 global cocoa stock/grinding ratio fell to 27.0%at a 46 -year low. Given further for 2024/25, ICCO estimated the global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25 on 28 February, the first surplus in four years. ICCO also estimated that 2024/25 global cocoa production would increase from +7.8% y/y to 4.84 mmt.

On the date of publication,

Rich aspland

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