October NY World Sugar #11 (SBV25) On Friday +0.08 ( +0.48%), and October London Ice White Sugar #5 (SWV25) +3.70 ( +0.76%) closed.
Sugar prices increased the benefit of this week on Friday, in which NY Sugar posted a high of 1.5 months and London Sugar at a height of 1.75 months. Strong global Chinese demand signs are supporting prices. China’s June Chinese imports increased from 1,435% to 420,000 mounts. In addition, President Trump said on Wednesday that Coca-Cola agreed to use sugarcane sugar in coke drinks sold in the US instead of high-fructose corn syrup, which may currently increase consumption of American sugar from 11 mm to 11 mm according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
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Sugar prices also support low sugar production in Brazil. Unika said on Monday that 2025/26 Brazilian Center -South Sugar Production -14.3% Y/Y fell from June to 12.249 mmt through June. Last month, Brazil’s official crop forecast agency Conb said 2024/25 Brazil fell to 44.4% y/y to 44.118 mmt, cite a low sugarcane yield due to drought and excessive heat.
Sugar prices have retreated in the last three months, NY Chinese has reduced to 4.25 years earlier this month and London Chinese is slipping at a low of 4 years, which is inspired by the expectations of Chinese surplus in 2025/26. On 30 June, the Commodity Treder Czarnikow estimated the 7.5 MMT Global Sugar Surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. On 22 May, in its bipolar report, the USDA estimated that the global 2025/26 sugar production +4.7% y/y will increase to a record 189.318 mmt, up to 41.188 mmt, 7.5% y/y with global Chinese termination.
The approach to high sugar production in India is the world’s second largest producer, recession for prices. On 2 June, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factory estimated that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would climb on +19% y/y to 35 mmt, citing the large -planned sugarcane. According to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), it will follow a fall of -17.5% y/y at a 5 -year low of 26.2 mm in India’s sugar production in 2024/25. In addition, ISMA said on 7 July that India’s sugar production -17% y/y fell to 25.74 mmt during October 1 -May 15.
Chinese production in India is expected to benefit from the forecast for the above normal rain during the monsoon season (June-September). On Monday, India’s Meteorological Department said that India’s rainfall was 9% above normal in June and the normal rainfall for July was forecast.
The approach to high sugar production in Thailand is a slowdown for sugar prices. On 2 May, the office of the sugarcane and sugar board of Thailand reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar production increased to 14% y/y 10.00 mm. Thailand is the third largest Chinese producer in the world and the second largest exporter of sugar.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its 2024/25 global Chinese deficit forecast for 9 -year highest -5.47 MMT from the February forecast of 4.88 MMT. This indicates a tightening market after the 2023/24 global Chinese surplus of 1.31 mmt. The ISO cut its 2024/25 global Chinese production forecast to 174.8 mm from February 175.5 mm.
In its bi-annual report released on 22 May by the USDA, it was estimated that the global 2025/26 sugar production +4.7% Y/Y will climb a record 189.318 mmt and the global 2025/26 human sugar consumption will increase +1.4% y/y record 177.921 mmt. The USDA also estimated that 2025/26 Global Sugar Ending Stock +7.5% Y/Y to climb 41.188 mmt. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 Chinese production would increase +2.3% y/y by a record 44.7 mm of FAS that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would increase +25% y/y to 35.3 mmt -friendly monsoon rains due to rain and increased sugar. The FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 Chinese production would climb from +2% y/y to 10.3 mmt.
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