October NY World Sugar #11 (SBV25) On Monday closed -0.45 (-2.68%), and October London Ice White Sugar #5 (SWV25) -13.50 (-2.77%) closed.
Sugar prices on Outlook for high sugar production in Brazil decreased on Monday. Detgro said on Monday that the dry weather in Brazil has encouraged the country’s sugar mills to crush their sugarcane, which bends more sugarcane crush towards more profitable sugar production rather than ethanol. According to Kovirig, Brazilian sugar mills are expected to crush 54% of the sugarcane available in the first half of this month, possibly the possibility of adding 3.2 mm sugar to the market.
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Sugar prices have retreated in the last three months, NY Sugar has reduced to 4.25 years earlier this month and London sugar is slipping at a low of 4 years, which is inspired by the expectations of Chinese surplus in the 2025/26 season. On 30 June, the Commodity Treder Czarnikow estimated the 7.5 MMT Global Sugar Surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. On 22 May, in its bipolar report, the USDA estimated that the global 2025/26 sugar production +4.7% y/y will increase to a record 189.318 mmt, up to 41.188 mmt, 7.5% y/y with global Chinese termination.
Last Friday, NY Sugar posted a 1.5 -month high post and London Sugar posted a 1.75 -month high, inspired by signs of strong global Chinese demand. China’s June Chinese imports increased from 1,435% to 420,000 mounts. In addition, President Trump said last Wednesday that Coca-Cola agreed to use sugarcane sugar in coke drinks sold in the US instead of high-fructose corn syrup, which may currently increase US sugar consumption from 11 MMT to +4.4% to 11.5 mm according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Sugar prices also support low sugar production in Brazil. Unika said last Monday that the 2025/26 Brazilian Center -South Sugar Production -14.3% Y/Y fell from Y/Y to 12.249 mmt through June. Last month, Brazil’s official crop forecast agency Conb said 2024/25 Brazil fell to 44.4% y/y to 44.118 mmt, cite a low sugarcane yield due to drought and excessive heat.
The approach to high sugar production in India is the world’s second largest producer, recession for prices. On 2 June, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factory estimated that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would climb on +19% y/y to 35 mmt, citing the large -planned sugarcane. According to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), it will follow a fall of -17.5% y/y at a 5 -year low of 26.2 mm in India’s sugar production in 2024/25. In addition, ISMA said on 7 July that India’s sugar production -17% y/y fell to 25.74 mmt during October 1 -May 15.
Chinese production in India is expected to benefit from the forecast for the above normal rain during the monsoon season (June-September). Last Monday, India’s Meteorological Department said that India’s rainfall in June was 9% above normal and was exalted above normal rainfall for July.
The approach to high sugar production in Thailand is a slowdown for sugar prices. On 2 May, the office of the sugarcane and sugar board of Thailand reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar production increased to 14% y/y 10.00 mm. Thailand is the third largest Chinese producer in the world and the second largest exporter of sugar.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its 2024/25 global Chinese deficit forecast for 9 -year highest -5.47 MMT from the February forecast of 4.88 MMT. This indicates a tightening market after the 2023/24 global Chinese surplus of 1.31 mmt. The ISO cut its 2024/25 global Chinese production forecast to 174.8 mm from February 175.5 mm.
In its bi-annual report released on 22 May by the USDA, it was estimated that the global 2025/26 sugar production +4.7% Y/Y will climb a record 189.318 mmt and the global 2025/26 human sugar consumption will increase +1.4% y/y record 177.921 mmt. The USDA also estimated that 2025/26 Global Sugar Ending Stock +7.5% Y/Y to climb 41.188 mmt. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 Chinese production would increase +2.3% y/y by a record 44.7mm FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would increase +25% y/y/y to 35.3 mm favorable monsoon rains due to rain and increased sugar. The FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 Chinese production would climb from +2% y/y to 10.3 mmt.
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