For the consumer’s approach, it is a great relief that railway passengers can book more at this time. But what can it mean for IRCTC because IRCTC has always flooded with many bookings regarding Tatakal. What can be the latest increase in the number of booking per minute for IRCTC Financial Matrix?
Amanish Aggarwal: For IRCTC stock or especially the company, this technology upgradation will enable them to handle them a lot of traffic in their system or booking. But it remains to be seen what a limited factor is. Is it technical capacity to handle the number of booking or is it the number of overall seats in trains that are available or are the number of passengers booking online online?
If we increase that capacity five times, it is not necessary that it is going to make a very fast jump as IRCTC revenue is concerned because for revenue jump, more seats must be available to more consumers who will start booking online. Will it have a positive impact on earnings? The answer is yes, it will have a positive effect, but it did not come out immediately. It will play in the long term. This will remove bottlenecks for development, but it is not a very large game changer that dramatically increases the number.
Apart from this, where do you see a question mark on which earnings are going to be seen in the upcoming quarter?
Amanish agarwal: We are yet to freeze our numbers for the quarters because it is just closed, but whatever I am learning, if you talk about some names that you had talked about and have seen the consumption place. Therefore, in the place of consumption, first of all, the weather has had great impact because we did not have intense heat as we had last year. Therefore, in the consumption place – in some sections of consumer durables, companies or some companies eat for summer demand – special segments are going to hit those specific companies.
Similarly, if you look at the broad staple space, we are not learning any major acceleration there. There is some improvement in demand which is happening there. If we look at other sections in broad consumption – whether it is retail or it is a particular area or the section where we can see some improvement, some stability in the margin, but not in the entire broad consumption place
Secondly, this is something that does not look as exciting as now. In those sections that will continue to perform well, it can be a capital goods because we had elections last year, so there were some types of execution delays in the first half and it would continue to perform well. The journey continues well. I believe that even pharma, healthcare, and hospitals are another section, out of which the number of appropriate levels is coming. Therefore, they are unlikely to change fundamentally in this quarter, which we saw in Q4, as far as your areas are concerned. There are specific areas that were doing well earlier. They will continue to perform well, but there is no possibility of any major change so far. We may have to wait for another quarter until the full impact of the tax cut or monsoon actually flows into the system.What is your view on power space? More data now shows that the demand for electricity in May and June was not expected. New policies in the state of Maharashtra also mean that electricity prices or electricity is unlikely to be high for merchant power companies. Is it time to check power stock, power utilities, or power producers or power transmitters for that case?
Amanish Aggarwal: Yes, I don’t think it is a structural trend. For example, as far as your demand is concerned, this time we had a very patched summer. Pachi in this sense that in May, even in the western or southern parts of the country, the monsoon arrived 15 days before normal. Even in the northern and central parts of the country, which usually have intense heat waves, we used to rain every week or 10 days. As a result, there is no demand for electricity this year as it was used.
This has been happening for the last two to three years, but certain consumers are upgraded, as technical systems are upgraded, more use of your AC, more electrical appliances and all, demand for all, all, is finally going to grow in long periods. Now, as far as other regulatory aspects are concerned, they will continue to come. There are two ways to look at the electric field, one that it will increase in long periods.
But as far as purchasing shares are concerned, usually in the middle, there are one or two bad quarters or numbers, it is not great and someone gets stock at the lower level. But given that in the last two-three years, electric shares have given you multibagger returns, now the old returns depend on how much anyone can increase development and longevity.
Longevity is certainly, but we are not in a phase where we will take out any name, pick it up, and in the next six months we will earn money. Therefore, we have to be very flexible. We have to wait for returns to play out from here. Yes, there may be one or two soft quarters by stopping, which is likely to be a landscape for this year’s Q1.